We build certainty into portfolios with clear payoffs or defined outcomes, so investors can see what a portfolio is designed to deliver before they commit to it.
Our approach combines behavioural risk with investment engineering. We measure how investors are likely to respond to gains, losses and uncertainty, then engineer portfolios with clear payoffs or defined outcomes, setting out the range of results in advance. This is the basis of payoff investing: an investor who knows what a portfolio is built to deliver is better placed to hold it through difficult markets. Our research tests each step, from how behaviour affects realised returns to how payoff structures change the path of returns.
Our research measures the return an investor can actually hold. In Nigeria we profile attitudes to risk through FREBO, our behavioural profiling engine, and measure the gap between the returns mutual funds publish and the returns their investors keep. Our working papers define the behaviourally realisable return, treat the point at which an investor abandons a strategy as a limit on the paths a portfolio can take, and test whether products designed around behaviour create more value than they cost to build. Each study is published in full on our Insights page.
Read our researchIf you've been to a dinner in Lagos since September, you've probably heard the question: rates are coming down, so where should I put my money now? It's a sensible question, but the number of people asking it at the same time tells us more than any answer I could give.
A fund's published return is what one naira earned by sitting in it from the first day to the last. The return an investor keeps depends on when the money was actually in.
Read the studyFund/Portfolio Manager, SEC file number 2071. RC 1743391. Established 2021 and registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Nigeria, in 2025. Registered products: the Naira Premium, Dollar Premium and Dividend Portfolios.